Global Macro Research
GeopoliticsThe 'Donroe Doctrine' and the Americas
US action in Venezuela reflects the new “Donroe Doctrine”, framing the western hemisphere as Washington’s exclusive sphere of influence. We examine and rate countries’ exposure to US scrutiny based on the administration’s interests of countering geopolitical rivals, supporting ideological allies, securing natural resources, and stemming migration and drug flows. Overall, the Americas will remain a key focus for the US.
Author
Tettey Addy
Emerging Markets Economic Analyst
Duration: 1 Min
Date: 03 Feb 2026
Key Takeaways
- The “Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine” outlined in the latest US National Security Strategy marks a new phase in US foreign policy.
- The capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and rhetoric regarding Greenland are emblematic of this more assertive and interventionist approach to the western hemisphere.
- With Delcy Rodríguez now leading Venezuela in coordination with Washington, the Trump administration aims to reinvigorate its oil sector. But major structural obstacles remain.
- For the wider region, this year’s elections in Colombia, Peru and Brazil will help determine the extent of regional realignment towards the US, which might seek to influence their outcomes.
- The US retains major leverage with Mexico and Canada, which will likely be on display through the renegotiation of USMCA. We expect the agreement to remain in place, but with serial annual reviews. Offsetting China’s economic influence across South America will be more challenging.
- The Trump administration will remain hawkish on the issues of illegal migration and narcotics ahead of the midterms. US kinetic action against cartels remains possible, although we see this as more likely to be in co-ordination with national governments, than unilateral.
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