US election 2024: Is it still “the economy, stupid”?
Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for president and leads Biden in early head-to-head polls nationally and in swing states. Biden’s approval ratings have been harmed by high inflation but easing price growth and a still solid economy could help his re-election prospects if sentiment improves.
Duration: 1 min
Date: 12 Feb 2024
Key Takeaways
Trump is all but assured to win the Republican primary
contest and leads Biden in early national head-to-head
polling, including in five of the six swing states that will
probably decide the general election.
Voters report negative perceptions of Biden, most
notably in his handling of the economy despite its
strong performance in recent quarters. The disconnect
between weak economic sentiment and stronger hard
data has been called the ‘vibecession’.
This is in part due to ongoing sensitivity to total price
increases over Biden’s presidency. The highly
polarised state of American politics is also skewing
sentiment surveys, with partisan commitments
affecting assessments of the state of the economy.
US consumer confidence has started to rebound
recently, helped by slower inflation, indicating that the
‘vibecession’ may be at an end. However, this has yet
to translate into any polling boost for Biden.
The stakes for the 2024 election are high, with a
second Trump presidency likely to lead to even more
economic and foreign policy volatility than his first.
Given these risks, we will explore the implications of
Trump’s proposals, including the introduction of
significant and widespread tariff increases, the rollback
of aspects of Biden’s legislative efforts and the
reshaping of US foreign policy in a series of notes
ahead of the 2024 election.
