Uncertainty, by definition, is uncomfortable. Yet it is also a powerful test of assumptions, business models and portfolio construction.

History offers useful perspective. While each crisis has its own trigger, the lessons investors take away tend to be remarkably consistent. In moments of extreme stress, liquidity becomes paramount. The ability to remain liquid - both at a portfolio level and as an organisation - is often what separates those forced to react under pressure from those able to protect capital and act decisively when opportunities emerge.

Market dislocations also remind us of the importance of understanding what we own. The technology bubble of the early 2000s demonstrated how quickly confidence can evaporate when growth narratives are built on fragile foundations. Valuations rarely unwind gradually when assumptions prove flawed, they reset abruptly. Investors who have clarity on business models, cash flow drivers and embedded expectations are far better positioned when sentiment turns.

Leverage, meanwhile, remains one of the most persistent sources of hidden vulnerability. The 2008 global financial crisis reinforced a simple but uncomfortable truth: investments that appear attractive only once leverage is applied often carry risks that are revealed too late. While leverage can amplify returns in favourable conditions, it has an equal, and often underestimated, capacity to amplify losses under stress.

These lessons continue to shape how we approach today’s environment. Rather than attempting to predict short-term outcomes, our focus remains on diversification, scenario analysis and disciplined portfolio construction. Adapting our House View carefully, not reactively, is critical in a world where shocks tend to arrive faster than expected.

As always, I would encourage investors to remain disciplined: understand what you own, why you own it, and ensure portfolios are robust enough to absorb uncertainty without forcing decisions at precisely the wrong moment. Volatility may be uncomfortable, but it is also an inevitable feature of investing - and one that prepared investors can navigate with confidence.

This quarter in the Investment Outlook you’ll find: 

The House View: After a strong rebound, the balance of risks is shifting. See how our House View is staying invested while rebalancing towards diversification, duration and infrastructure amid heightened geopolitical and inflation uncertainty.

Macro: Paul Diggle explains how geopolitics is increasingly driving inflation, volatility and returns. He unpacks what should matter to investors as portfolios adapt to a changing world.

Equities and quality: Devan Kaloo examines the reasons behind quality investing’s recent struggles and looks at the latest market developments. He also argues that discipline, valuation and fundamentals remain important to long-term success.

AI: Read Nick Robinson’s analysis of how AI leadership hinges on deployment, influence and productivity - not just superior models. Nick looks at the contrasting approaches of the US and China, and their investment implications.

Fixed Income: Jonathan Mondillo shows how short-dated bonds can boost portfolio resilience - in the form of lower volatility, reduced drawdowns and income-led returns — during uncertain times.

Real Assets: Ruari Revell says Europe’s shift to cleaner energy isn’t just about renewable sources, it’s also about robust networks and adaptable systems.

As ever, I hope you enjoy these articles.