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Emerging Markets EquitiesWho's winning the AI race - and does it matter?
AI is often compared to the nuclear or space race — but is that the right analogy? We explore how the US and China are competing in AI, from models and semiconductors to power grids and government strategy and ask whether this is really a race at all — or something far more complex.
Authors
Nick Robinson
Deputy Head of Global Emerging Market Equities
Robert Gilhooly
Senior Emerging Markets Economist
Part of
Emerging Markets Equity podcast
Duur: 27 mins
Date: 06 mei 2026
In this episode, we explore how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global competition. We compare the US and China’s approaches to AI, looking beyond the headlines to examine models, infrastructure, power, government strategy and the real world application of AI across economies.
Nick speaks to Bob, and they discuss whether AI really represents a race between the US and China, how different policy and market structures are shaping outcomes, and why the implications for growth and productivity may matter more than who is technically “ahead” at any given moment.
Some highlights:
Some highlights:
- Why AI is different from past technology races such as nuclear power or space.
AI is often framed as a geopolitical race, but unlike nuclear weapons or the space programme, it is being driven largely by commercial incentives and diffusing rapidly across economies. The discussion explores why this makes AI a fundamentally different kind of competition.
- Who is leading in AI models — and why that may not tell the full story.
While headline benchmarks suggest the US may still have an edge in the most advanced models, the gap is narrowing. The conversation looks at why model rankings alone can be misleading when assessing long term impact.
- The role of power, compute and infrastructure in shaping AI adoption.
AI development depends not just on software, but on vast amounts of compute and electricity. We examine how differences in energy systems and infrastructure could shape how quickly AI is adopted and scaled in different countries.
- How government strategy differs between the US and China.
The US and China are pursuing very different policy approaches, from regulation and export controls to state support and industrial strategy. These choices may have long lasting effects on where and how AI is deployed.
- Why applications and productivity gains may matter more than breakthroughs.
Rather than focusing solely on cutting edge breakthroughs, the discussion considers how applying AI across manufacturing and services could prove more economically significant — particularly over the medium to long term.
Listen to the full discussion here:
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