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The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - June 2026

Growth looks steady. But are markets underestimating the risks from oil and AI?

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Duration: 4 Mins

Growth has held up better than many expected, even in the face of higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions. 
But beneath that resilience, risks are building — from possible renewed pressure in oil markets to uncertainty around artificial intelligence and its impact on the economy.

In this month’s video, Luke Batholomew sets out our new updated scenarios for the months ahead and why the balance of risks still matters. 
In the video, he tackles:
  • Why the global economy is proving more resilient than expected, even as higher energy costs help drive inflation and weigh on household finances. 
  • What could push oil prices higher again, and why developments in the Middle East remain a key swing factor for markets and central banks. 
  • How AI could shape the next phase of growth, either supporting stronger productivity or disappointing against elevated expectations. 
  • Which lower-probability risks investors should still watch, from shifts in fiscal policy to volatility in bond markets. 

Watch the video for more details.

 

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