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Global Macro Research

Innovative macro research on the big economic, policy, political and behavioural themes shaping the investment landscape. 

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The Monthly Macro Outlook Video – July 2026
Macroeconomics
The Monthly Macro Outlook Video – July 2026

Oil, geopolitics and UK fiscal policy are back in focus.

5 min Watch
Vibes versus reality
Vibes versus reality

US consumer sentiment is at lows normally reserved for times of severe recession. Regardless of whether household perceptions have broken from reality, or macro data are failing to capture a wide swathe struggling to get by, the ‘vibecession’ matters for politics. Ultimately it feeds into votes, policy choices and back into the economy and markets.

1 min Read
What is Africa's role in the critical minerals landscape?
Macroeconomics
What is Africa's role in the critical minerals landscape?

Africa holds a vast range of critical minerals that are vital for global supply chains. This has led to strong interest from western countries that want to diversify their supply chains away from China. However, China has been investing in the continent for decades, meaning its presence is already deeply embedded.

1 min Read
What does Andy Burnham's rise mean for the UK economy?
Macro Bytes
What does Andy Burnham's rise mean for the UK economy?

A new prime minister, a new governing philosophy and some big economic questions. What is ‘Manchesterism’ and can it deliver the growth the UK needs?

29 min Watch
Are recessions really predictable? Rethinking economic 'common sense'
Macro Bytes
Are recessions really predictable? Rethinking economic 'common sense'

Are downturns driven by cycles or shocks? A fresh take on forecasting recessions.

40 min Listen
The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - June 2026
Macroeconomics
The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - June 2026

Growth looks steady. But are markets underestimating the risks from oil and AI?

4 min Watch
Global Economic Scenarios Q3 2026
Global Economic Scenarios Q3 2026

Our baseline “TACOil” scenario incorporates de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict and a continued tailwind from AI capex. Global growth is close to trend, there is a temporary inflation increase, but the Fed is on hold this year and cuts next year. Our scenario distribution includes “closure risk dominates” and a residual risk of “stagflation”, as the energy shock could return. AI is the other key risk dimension, with possible downsides both from “AI and capex collapse” and “AI eats all the jobs”, but an important upside in “productivity rebound”. We also consider the downside risks of “bond market rout” and a US-China “technological decoupling” and the upside of “fiscal expansion”.

1 min Read
How might the ECB change as and when Lagarde leaves?
How might the ECB change as and when Lagarde leaves?

ECB President Christine Lagarde’s term is up in 2027 but she could leave earlier. We discuss some of the leading candidates, and how they might change policy. We don’t anticipate changing our policy rate forecasts based on the choice of successor. But these candidates could shape policy along other dimensions, with important macro implications.

1 min Read

Risk warning

The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and an investor may get back less than the amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future results.