Global Macro Research
MacroeconomicsThe monthly macro outlook video: April 2026
Markets rallied after the US–Iran ceasefire, but risks still lurk. Paul Diggle explains what falling oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitics mean for inflation and the global outlook.
Author
Paul Diggle
Chief Economist
Duration: 6 Mins
Date: 09 Apr 2026
A sudden ceasefire between the US and Iran has sent markets sharply higher. But does that mean the risks have passed?
Oil prices have fallen; risk assets have rallied and expectations for interest rates have shifted. However, beneath the surface, there are still major unanswered questions.
Much now hinges on whether the ceasefire holds and what happens in one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
In the video Paul explores:
- Why markets moved into ‘risk on’ mode after the ceasefire announcement and why that reaction may be fragile.
- What the Strait of Hormuz means for oil prices and inflation, and why shipping traffic matters more than headlines.
- How Aberdeen uses scenarios, rather than single forecasts, to navigate extreme uncertainty.
- The lasting economic damage that could persist even if tensions ease.
Why geopolitical shocks are becoming a structural feature of the global economy — not a one off event.
Watch the video for more details.
