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Global Macro Research

Eight long-term structural economic convictions

From low equilibrium interest rates and the shifting engines of global growth, to the changing nature of globalisation and the labour market effects of AI, we discuss some of our longer-term economic key calls.

Author
Global Macro Research

Duration: 1 min

Date: 18 Jan 2024

Key Calls 

  • Equilibrium policy interest rates are still low.

  • However, inflation has become structurally more

    volatile.

  • Emerging markets will drive three-quarters of global

    growth by 2050.

  • Nevertheless, a genuine challenger to the dominance

    of the US dollar is unlikely anytime soon.

  • Constrained fiscal space means tax takes and the term

    premium will increase over time.

  • AI will not cause net long-term unemployment.

  • The nature of globalisation will continue to change as

    the world fragments.

  • Mounting political polarisation will create sharp swing

    in economic, regulatory and social policy.

     

    Read the full article.

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