Infrastructure :Transport as mainstay and as megatrend

Looking ahead to 2026, this sector will continue to occupy the crossroads of tradition and transformation, as powerful megatrends—demographics, the energy transition and digitalisation—reshape investment opportunities.

For investors, transport can offer stability, scale and sustainability. But it also demands a nuanced understanding of evolving risks and returns alongside a ‘hands-on’ approach to asset management.

Foundation of real assets

Transport infrastructure - rail, road, ports and aviation networks - has long been a mainstay of real assets. Its economic impact is profound: in Europe, transport accounts for around 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) and employs more than 10 million people.

Investment in transport can fundamentally reshape regions, driving land values, rejuvenating communities and supporting new industries. 

For example, in Australia, we helped build the urban light rail system in Canberra that led to a dramatic increase in land values and boosted construction activity.

Yet, this critical sector is not static. How we move people and goods is changing, driven by urbanisation, climate imperatives and technological innovation.

Demographics: urbanisation and mobility

By 2050, urban populations in the UK and across Europe are forecast to reach 90% and 84%, respectively. This demographic shift is driving rising demand for more public transport capacity, faster connections and integrated mass transit systems.

That’s why a challenge for policymakers in the coming decades is to deliver these transport networks—at a time when limited government finances increase the need for private investment. 

Decarbonising transport: energy transition 

Transport remains a stubborn sector for carbon emissions, accounting for more than 25% of greenhouse gases in Europe. In recent years, while energy-sector emissions have fallen, transport emissions have flatlined.

That said, rail stands out for bucking this trend – it accounts for less than 1% of transport emissions and yet is responsible for some 7% of journeys. Emissions-per-passenger kilometre are more than four times lower than for cars and some seven times lower than for domestic flights.

Electrification, modern rolling stock and digital signalling are driving efficiency and emissions reductions. For example, new trains can cut energy use by up to 30%.

In the UK, the investment case for replacing rolling stock is compelling and increasingly urgent. With an ageing fleet and demand projected to grow by up to 97% by 2050, the need is clear. Meanwhile, electrification targets and a plan to phase out diesel by 2040 further reinforces this urgency.

Digitalisation: smarter, greener networks

Technology is transforming transportation. Digitalisation enables better project design, predictive maintenance and improved passenger experiences. 

For train networks, upgrading physical traffic light systems with digital signalling improves reliability, safety and efficiency. For roads, AI is now used to derive better insights and predict traffic flows.  

Investment themes for 2026

Challenges and innovations

Growing demand for mobility needs to align with decarbonisation goals and the intersection can create opportunities. 

But infrastructure projects face challenges in relocating utilities, especially in urban centres, requiring strong relationships and careful planning. 

Technological advances—AI, digitalisation and automation—are set to transform how we commute and manage transport networks.

Final thoughts

Transport infrastructure remains a mainstay of traditional infrastructure investing, but the sector is being reshaped by powerful megatrends. 

For investors, the opportunity lies in supporting the transition to cleaner, smarter and more resilient networks—delivering both financial returns and real-world impact.

For clients seeking long-term growth, stability and making a positive impact, transport infrastructure offers compelling opportunities—anchored in tradition, but ready for the future.