Global Macro Research

Macro Bytes: Macro questions for 2024

abrdn’s economics team ask, and answer, the crucial economic, political and market questions investors have for 2024.

Author

Paul Diggle

Chief Economist

Contributors

Luke Bartholomew, James McCann, Robert Gilhooly, Felix Feather, Sree Kochugovindan, Lizzy Galbraith, Michael Langham

Duration: 23 mins

Date: 15 Dec 2023

abrdn’s economics team ask, and answer, the crucial economic, political and market questions investors have for 2024. These include the path of inflation, the outlook for US, China and Eurozone growth, the likely pace of interest rate cuts, the impact of a possible Trump presidency, and the potential for AI to drive a productivity boom.

Podcast

Transcript

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The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - August 2025

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Japan continuity despite an election setback

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house, weakening PM Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership. The outcome threatens the domestic policy agenda, complicates the trade talks with the US, and could trigger near-term bouts of market turmoil. But the longer-term outlook for Japanese assets looks stable.

21 Jul 2025

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Is China selling its US Treasuries?

After accounting for the use of custodians and acknowledging the role of state-owned enterprises, there seems to be limited evidence of China actively reducing its exposure to US assets. That said, holdings as a share of foreign assets may have been falling, while opportune sales could occur in an attempt to recruit ‘bond vigilantes’ and moderate US trade policy.

09 Jul 2025

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