Global Macro Research
GlobalThe state of US supply chains: from tariffs to war
US supply chains have gone from weathering sharp shifts in tariffs to facing strain from the Iran war. Our US Supply Chain Conditions Index allows us to assess these impacts on prices, freight, labour and more as they unfold using high-frequency indicators. One finding is that US supply chains are seeing considerably less strain than during the post-pandemic inflation surge.
Author
Tettey Addy
Emerging Markets Economic Analyst
Duration: 1 Min
Date: 03 Jun 2026
Key Takeaways
- US supply chains have managed to weather the effects of the Trump administration’s trade policies via a reorientation of imports from China to other Asian markets.
- The US is better insulated than many other major economies from shortages caused by the Iran war. But incoming data show how rising commodity prices are beginning to compound on the costs of prior tariffs for firms.
- Our US supply chain conditions index (SCCI) incorporates a range of high frequency indicators, allowing us to assess supply chain spillovers from the Iran war compared to prior shocks.
- The resilience of freight transportation at the US’ borders, high inventories going into the conflict, and the labour market not seeing major shortages are mitigating the current shock compared to 2021- 2022. But a prolonged closure of the strait will increase the strain on US supply chains.
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