Key highlights:
- One Big Beautiful Bill Act. What’s in the sweeping US fiscal package, and how might it push the fiscal deficit above 7% of GDP within 24 months?
- Tariff trends. Why the average US tariff rate could rise — and what legal battles may shape future US trade policy?
- Policy tools in play. Even if one key tariff power is struck down by the courts, Donald Trump still has multiple levers to pull.
- Risks to the outlook. From tax-cut extensions to sector-specific support, what could widen the budget deficit even further?