Giving thanks, but keeping the leftovers on the table

Why? Because we believe it may be premature to box up the leftover gains and go home. Through October 31, gold is up 53%, silver is up 69%, platinum is up 75%, and palladium is up 60%.¹

Gold

Following a 10% selloff, gold remains supported by strong central bank demand, which is only 12% below last year's record high.² Globally, the average country holds 24% of its foreign exchange (FX) reserves in gold.³

That is far below the US, where it is 77%. China has been a significant gold buyer since joining the World Trade Organization and has now achieved a 7.7% gold holding within its FX reserves, with a stated short-term goal of 10%, but remains well below the 20% global average. Poland has been another significant buyer, with its gold ownership level reaching 24%, but it has publicly stated a goal of 30%.⁴ These goals are multi-year goals due to the volumes involved.

Another large portion of the gold demand story has been exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors, who made small purchases in 2024 but made significant purchases after the Federal Reserve signaled impending rate cuts in August. ETF investors remain 13.7 million ounces below their COVID ownership level.⁵

Silver

Following a 14% selloff, silver remains supported by industrial demand in China, primarily driven by electronics sales, data centers, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy trends.⁶ These trends are at various stages of growth in different countries; however, the fact that demand comes from multiple sources and spans multiple regions improves confidence that we have not seen the last of the silver run.

It will be key for China's industrial economy to continue performing for silver to continue its performance into 2026. The strong performance this year comes after four years of silver supply deficits, which is expected to continue this year, so a catch-up in price was to be expected.⁷ Since 2016, silver mine supply has actually dropped 8.9% standing testament to the issues the mining industry has faced attempting to increase supply over the last decade.⁷

Palladium

Palladium rose 77% through mid-October but then suffered a 15% selloff.⁸

The automotive industry drives more than 80% of palladium demand, as palladium is the key metal in catalytic converters that help reduce emissions from internal combustion engines (ICE).

The electric vehicle (EV) adoption trend is in retrograde, having lost the $7,500 US tax credit at the end of September. September auto sales, which included the tax credit, showed that EVs sold for an average of $9,070 more than ICE vehicles, even after those EVs had an average dealer discount of $8,890.⁹ Honda, GM, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, and others have even reversed their commitment to EV models.^10,11,12,13

Platinum

Platinum rose 85% through mid-October and had a 10% pullback.¹⁴

Only 37% of platinum demand comes from ICE catalytic converters – a far cry from the demand for palladium.

Industrial demand is a bigger story than just the automotive industry, but the larger trend this year has been from Chinese jewelry demand. The Chinese and Indian public are significant gold buyers, and they are price sensitive. In China, the public has recently begun purchasing platinum jewelry instead of gold jewelry, which is twice as expensive, given gold's $4,084 price and platinum's $1,545 price.¹⁵

Endnotes

¹ Bloomberg data: gold, silver, platinum, palladium, 12/31/2025–10/31/2025.
² Bloomberg data: gold price, 10/20/2025–10/29/2025.
³ "Gold Reserves by Country." World Gold Council, November 2025. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-reserves-by-country.
⁴ "Central bank gold statistics: Central bank gold buying rebounds in August." World Gold Council, October 2025. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/10/central-bank-gold-statistics-central-bank-gold-buying-rebounds-august.
⁵ Bloomberg data: gold ETF ounces, 10/12/2020 vs. 11/14/2025.
⁶ Bloomberg data: silver price, 10/16/2025–10/27/2025.
⁷ "Silver Supply and Demand." World's Silver Survey 2025. The Silver Institute, November 2025. https://silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/.
⁸ Bloomberg data: palladium, 10/16/2025–10/27/2025.
⁹ "EV Market Monitor – September 2025." Cox Automotive, September 2025. https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights-hub/ev-market-monitor-september-2025/.
¹⁰ "Honda pulls back on EV strategy for now and will push hybrid sales." AP News, May 2025. https://apnews.com/article/honda-japan-us-ev-sales-hybrid-48fb1e4840c5b3889fda5c9e1531f783.
¹¹ "GM to cut EV, battery production and 1,200 jobs at Detroit plant." Reuters, October 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/gm-cut-over-1200-jobs-ev-plant-detroit-news-reports-2025-10-29.
¹² "Ford Offers No Timeline To Restart F-150 Lightning Production As Cancellation Rumors Swirl." EVXL, November 2025. https://evxl.co/2025/11/11/ford-no-timeline-restart-f-150-lightning-production/.
¹³ "Mercedes Drops EQ Pricing Before Pausing U.S. Production." Car and Driver, July 2025. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a65450365/mercedes-cuts-eq-pricing-ends-us-production/.
¹⁴ Bloomberg data: platinum, 10/16/2025–11/06/2025.
¹⁵ Bloomberg data: gold, platinum price, 11/14/2025.

Important information

The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future results.

The abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust, abrdn Palladium ETF Trust and abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts.

The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including: A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently, its price and the price of the Shares; Investors’ expectations with respect to the rate of inflation; currency exchange rates; interest rates; Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.

Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices, negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts’ physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen. Failure by the custodian or sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the Trusts.

The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the precious metal that is not covered by insurance. Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or “authorized participants” may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 50k to 100k shares.

This material must be accompanied or preceded by the prospectus. Carefully consider each Trust’s investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. To view the prospectus, please click here – abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust, abrdn Palladium ETF Trust, and abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust.

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