SpaceX IPO: priced for the stars – and beyond

At a proposed valuation approaching $1.75 trillion, the company would arrive not only as the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, but as one of the most richly valued firms ever listed [1].

For investors, the question is simple: are they buying into a revolutionary space-based infrastructure business or underwriting a vision that simply doesn’t add up?

The bull case: a rare industrial champion

What we do know: SpaceX is already the dominant player in commercial space launch and satellite connectivity.

The numbers are striking. According to filings, the company generated roughly $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, with its Starlink – the firm’s global satellite internet network – accounting for more than 60% of sales and delivering over $4 billion in operating income [2].

That changes the starting point. Unlike many high-profile IPOs, SpaceX has a tangible, scaled revenue stream with global reach. Its vertically integrated model – designing rockets, launching satellites and monetising connectivity – offers a rare combination of industrial capability and recurring revenue.

The next phase of growth may hinge on Starship, SpaceX’s next-generation rocket currently in development. If successful, it could dramatically expand launch capacity while driving down costs, potentially opening up a wider range of commercial applications.

A different valuation orbit?

The problem lies in how much investors must pay for those revenues.

At roughly $1.75 trillion, the valuation implies extreme optimism about future growth. On current numbers, this translates into a revenue multiple approaching triple digits. To justify that valuation on more typical terms, SpaceX would need to scale revenues several-fold – into the hundreds of billions annually.

Much of that expected growth is tied to newer initiatives, including xAI and space-based data centres. Yet both remain at an early stage – with limited commercial traction today and, in some cases, firmly on the drawing board – while supporting capabilities such as large-scale chip manufacturing are complex and capital-intensive to scale.

For perspective, Nvidia trades at roughly 20-25 times revenue, while mature mega-cap peers such as Apple trade closer to 10 times. That places SpaceX not just at a premium, but in a different valuation orbit altogether [3] [4].

That strength, however, does not yet translate at the group level. The company reported a net loss of around $4.9 billion in 2025, as it made heavy investment in artificial intelligence and next-generation infrastructure [5].

In short, investors are being asked to fund a business that is still very much in its investment phase.

Governance: public money, private control

But if the valuation raises eyebrows, the governance structure is also giving investors pause.

SpaceX will list with a dual-class share structure that gives Elon Musk overwhelming control – estimated at 80%-85% of voting power despite holding a far smaller economic stake [6].

In practical terms, this means public shareholders will have little meaningful influence over strategy, board appointments, or the removal of management. Appointing a new CEO would, in effect, require Musk to fire himself. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where that happens.

On top of this, he’s already CEO of Tesla – a company valued at close to $2 trillion – raising the prospect that two of the world’s most valuable companies could ultimately be run by the same individual.

The narrative premium: Mars, AI and beyond

Then there is Elon Musk.

To many, he is a visionary – the driving force behind electric vehicles and reusable rockets. To detractors, he’s prone to over-promising.

That matters.

SpaceX’s long-term ambitions include Mars colonisation, orbital data centres (let’s not even get into the physics of that) and even resource extraction beyond Earth. These are projects that, by the company’s own admission, rely on technologies and markets that largely do not yet exist.

These ambitions divide opinion. Supporters see them as evidence of a company building for decades, not quarters. Critics dismiss them as speculative. 

For investors, this creates a familiar dilemma: how much of the valuation is justified by current cash flows and how much rests on belief in a future that may take decades to materialise?

A question of faith or discipline

SpaceX’s IPO will test more than investor appetite for growth. It will test their willingness to embrace a new model of public equity ownership: high valuation, limited governance rights, and faith in a founder-driven vision.

That combination has worked before. But at this scale? 

For some, SpaceX represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in the infrastructure of the future. For others, it looks like paying today for profits that may – or may not – never arrive.

 

 

[1] [tesery.com],

[2] [tesery.com], [sacra.com] [cnbc.com]

[3] NVIDIA (NVDA) PS Ratio - Current & Historical Data (Jun 2026)

[4] Apple (AAPL) - P/S ratio

[5] [tesery.com]

[6] SpaceX files for Nasdaq IPO with Musk retaining 85.1% voting control | investingLive

[7] SpaceX IPO Is Forcing Changes To Index And Underwriting Rules