Insights
Sustainable investing Why physical climate risk demands investor attention
Physical climate risk is no longer a niche concern – it’s a core investment issue. Find out why.
Author
Anna Moss
Sustainable Investment Manager
Duration: 3 Mins
Date: 15 dec 2025
For years, investors have focused on climate transition risk – policy shifts, regulatory changes and technological disruption. But the story is changing. Rising global temperatures are turning physical climate risk into an immediate threat, with the power to reshape asset values, portfolio performance, and long-term financial stability.
In this piece, Dr Anna Moss explores why investors can no longer afford to overlook physical risk – and how to start tackling this complex but critical challenge.
Why this matters
Physical climate risks, both acute (for example floods, wildfires and hurricanes) and chronic (such as rising sea levels and shifting temperature and rainfall patterns), are increasingly material to investment outcomes.
The impact can be severe: asset damage and insurance gaps, operational disruption and higher capital expenditure, and market-driven depreciation and financial exposure.
For investors , this translates into real financial risk across asset classes. But it’s not all negative. With a strategic approach, these challenges can also open new avenues for risk-adjusted opportunities.
What should investors do?
To stay ahead of accelerating climate-related risks and shifting market expectations, investors need to evolve their approach. That means embedding physical climate risk analysis into decision-making. Key strategies include:
1. Climate scenario analysis
Top-down climate scenario analysis helps investors understand forward-looking portfolio-level exposure under different climate pathways (more on our approach). Take a “hot house world” scenario for example, where emissions continue to rise unchecked. This highlights which sectors and geographies could face the greatest physical risk, helping investors anticipate material impacts before they happen. The potential output? A ‘heat-map’ that prioritises companies for further analysis and informs smarter risk management .
2. Location-level analysis
Physical climate risk is highly location-specific. A region may be flagged for severe riverine or coastal flooding, yet only a fraction of its area faces direct exposure. That’s why granular spatial analysis [1] is essential for:
3. Sectoral deep dives
Location-specific analysis shouldn’t stop at real assets. Applying this lens across other asset classes can reveal hidden risks and opportunities. Increasingly, we use this approach to identify vulnerable sub-sectors and high-risk companies. These insights can inform our equity and corporate debt strategies , as well as targeted engagement.
Thirsty AI in water-stressed regions
AI data centres consume vast amounts of water – up to five million gallons per day for cooling. With water use projected to grow at a staggering 80% CAGR (compound annual growth rate), and climate change intensifying water scarcity in some regions, investors must consider:
4. Considering indirect exposure: macroeconomic shockwaves
Physical climate risks don’t just affect assets in harm’s way – they send shockwaves through the broader economy. Investors should be alert to:
These indirect shocks mean no asset class is immune – even those not directly exposed to climate hazards.
5. Adaptation and resilience
Understanding exposure is only half the equation. Investors must also assess how assets are managing that risk. Adaptation and resilience are becoming a priority for mitigating climate risks and uncovering opportunities.
Finnish energy infrastructure
Finland’s energy networks are feeling the effects of climate change. Warmer winters, heavier snowfalls, and more frequent storms are reshaping demand patterns and operational risks. We are working with company management teams to build resilience across district heating and electricity distribution.
The Climate Resilient Investment Framework (CRIF)
We’re not conducting our analysis in a vacuum. Developed by the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change , the CRIF offers a practical tool for evaluating asset resilience, informing engagement, and identifying companies that are leading on adaptation. We’re actively exploring ways to expand our climate risk assessment by applying this framework to strengthen decision-making.
Final thoughts…
Physical climate risk is no longer a niche concern – it’s a core investment issue. Integrating it into portfolio construction, asset selection and engagement strategies is essential. Investors who act now can not only protect returns but also uncover new opportunities in a rapidly changing climate landscape.
- Spatial analysis is the process of examining the relationships, patterns, and trends of data in relation to their geographic or spatial context.
- The implications of severe weather events for the economy and monetary policy | CEPR
