Global Macro Research
Global Macro ResearchTariff uncertainty dominates
We forecast a meaningful slowdown in global growth caused by the sharp increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. In the US, this will play out as a stagflationary shock, although some monetary easing is still likely. For the rest of the world, this is a negative growth and inflation shock, into which central banks will cut rates.
Author
Global Macro Research
Duration: 1 min
Date: 11 เม.ย. 2568
Key Takeaways
- Trump’s tariff announcements are expected to have widespread implications for global trade and economic activity.
To reflect the likely changes in the outlook, we have adopted a new base case scenario called “tariff uncertainty dominates”, in which our tariff assumptions are close to what the president promised on the campaign trail.
- As a result, we have downgraded our global and US GDP growth forecasts. The latter now sits at 1.3% for 2025, with a 50% probability of a recession over the next 12 months.
- We have revised up our US inflation forecasts, and expect US CPI to average above 3% in 2025. This will constrain the Fed, although it will still ease interest rates further this year. For the rest of the world, the tariff shock will weigh on inflation and interest rates.
As the name of our scenario suggests, uncertainty remains extremely elevated as trade policy volatility continues.
