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What’s driving the latest surge in US deficit projections? Lizzy Galbraith highlights the fiscal and trade policy shifts that could reshape the global economic outlook.
While the threat of an escalation in the US trade war has receded, slowing global growth will be a drag, particularly on EMs reliant on trade. That said, a weaker US dollar and limited spillover from rising developed market bond yields should give EM central banks room to support their economies.
In this episode, we explore the Trump administration’s sweeping plans that would swell government borrowing, why bond markets are getting nervous, and what Elon Musk’s exit may mean.
Tariff shocks have worn off, but investor concerns are shifting to fiscal risks. Explore what’s driving international economies and markets in our latest analysis.
European defence spending is set to rise. However, fiscal considerations and low growth multipliers will constrain the economic tailwind somewhat, while fractured procurement and reliance on arms imports need to be addressed.