Global Macro Research
MacroeconomicsThe Monthly Macro Outlook Video December 2025
Will AI drive growth or risk a bubble? Watch our video for our take on 2026’s key global economic trends.
Author
Paul Diggle
Chief Economist
Duration: 5 Mins
Date: 11 Dec 2025
Paul Diggle, Chief Economist at Aberdeen, highlights the major macroeconomic themes expected to shape 2026, drawing on insights from Aberdeen’s newly published Global Economic Outlook.
The focus is on US growth prospects, key risks, and diverging trends across major global economies.
Key highlights:
Key highlights:
- US growth – we forecast GDP to improve to 2.2% in 2026 driven by AI, reduced tariff uncertainty, fiscal support and further interest rate cuts
- US Risks - deteriorating labour market, trade policy uncertainty, new Federal Reserve Chair, and possibility that AI bubble could burst
- Europe - slow recovery, gradual fiscal loosening, Germany increasing fiscal stimulus, France faces challenges in tightening its budget.
- China - growth projected to slow further to 4.5% with ongoing real estate and consumer confidence headwinds, but continued policy stimulus and low inflation.
While our base case is for US reacceleration, robust scenario analysis and portfolio diversification are required to mitigate realistic downside risks.
Watch the video for more details.
