Monthly Macro Outlook Video - October 2026
The global economy has proved resilient, but rising borrowing costs could put that strength to the test.
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Duration: 4 Mins
Date: 26 Oct 2026
The economy has been more resilient than many expected. In the US, investment, tax refunds and strong equity markets have helped support growth, while spending on artificial intelligence (AI) has provided an additional boost.
But that strength brings challenges. Inflation remains elevated, with higher energy prices adding to the pressure. Meanwhile, strong demand for investment capital and heavy government borrowing are pushing up the returns investors expect for lending money over longer periods.
France is one example of how concerns over government finances are affecting bond markets, with the gap between French and German government bond yields widening.
The key question is whether higher yields simply reflect a stronger economy, or eventually become a brake on growth. As yields rise, borrowing becomes more expensive for governments, businesses and households. Go too far, and that could begin to weigh on economic activity and financial markets.
In this month’s monthly macro outlook video, we examine:
Why inflation remains a concern, despite continued economic growth.
Why major central banks could raise interest rates again, rather than cutting them.
What is driving government bond yields higher, including inflation, growth and public borrowing.
Why France is attracting attention from bond investors.
What could threaten the economy’s resilience, and the warning signs to watch.
Watch video for our full analysis.
