Europe’s defence is about far more than weapons

I think the bigger picture may be missed.

A structural shift

What’s happening is something broader. Europe is entering a multi-year period of rebuilding military capability, industrial capacity, critical infrastructure and technological sovereignty.

For decades, efficiency was the organising principle of economic policy. Supply chains stretched around the world. Energy security became secondary to cost. Critical technologies were outsourced. Defence budgets were cut.

That model is being reassessed.

Governments are now worrying about cyber attacks, critical infrastructure, semiconductor access, energy resilience and technological sovereignty. Businesses are having the same conversations. National security is no longer just a military issue. It has become an economic one.

Rethinking defence? 

I believe that defence is more than just a sector – it's part of a much broader, long-term security and resilience strategy.

Opportunities for investors extend beyond businesses that make military equipment. Defence also includes companies that enable security and resilience. This includes cyber security platforms, secure communications networks, advanced sensing technologies, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven security tools, specialist manufacturing capabilities, and the infrastructure that supports them.

In many cases, these businesses develop dual-use technologies that serve both commercial and government customers. Their products are part of everyday economic activity, even if their origins sit in national security. That broadens the commercial opportunity, but also makes a product’s intended purpose and end users important considerations for investors. 

What’s fascinating to me is how technology is reshaping the theme.

Technology turnaround

Historically, defence innovation flowed from governments to the private sector. Today, the direction is often reversed.

Venture-backed companies are developing some of the most important advances in AI, software, autonomous systems and data analytics, often years before they become household names. I see this as one of the most compelling investment opportunities.

A pivotal role for private markets

Many of the businesses shaping Europe’s resilience are still private. I think that’s where some of the greatest value will be created – well before these companies reach public markets.

I believe that private markets will be central to Europe’s next chapter, not a supporting act. They will provide the capital needed to build and scale technologies that governments and businesses can no longer afford to treat as optional.

Not every company will succeed, and innovation will not follow a straight line. But I am convinced that many of tomorrow’s security leaders are still being built today – and investors who wait for public listings risk arriving too late.

Europe’s defence reset is just the beginning

I see Europe’s ability to rebuild its technological and industrial strength as far more fascinating than the headline increase in defence budgets.

The real question is not whether defence spending will rise, but who will create the next wave of value? In my view, that shift is already under way.

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