Global Macro Research
Macroeconomics

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video – July 2026

Oil, geopolitics and UK fiscal policy are back in focus.

Author
Senior Political Economist

Duration: 5 Mins

Date: 23 Jul 2026

Could markets be underestimating the risks from the Middle East and UK tax policy? 

Lizzy Galbraith looks at two issues that could shape the investment backdrop over the coming months: renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz and the fiscal choices facing the new UK prime minister, Andy Burnham. 

 

In the video, she explains:

  • Why tensions between the US and Iran have raised concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy markets. 

  • How oil prices have already moved higher, even though they remain below their April peak. 

  • Why both sides may still be trying to ‘escalate to de-escalate’, but why the path back to stability could be uneven. 

  • What investors should watch next, including possible attacks on energy infrastructure or renewed diplomatic efforts led by Qatar or Pakistan. 

  • Why, in the UK, tight spending plans and existing fiscal rules mean tax rises look increasingly likely. 

Watch the video for more details.

 

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