How might the ECB change as and when Lagarde leaves?
ECB President Christine Lagarde’s term is up in 2027 but she could leave earlier. We discuss some of the leading candidates, and how they might change policy. We don’t anticipate changing our policy rate forecasts based on the choice of successor. But these candidates could shape policy along other dimensions, with important macro implications.
Duration: 1 Min
Date: Jun 15, 2026
Key Takeaways
Former Bank of Spain Governor Hernández de Cos is the frontrunner to replace Lagarde, whose term as president of the ECB is due to expire in 2027.
And Lagarde might wish to resign before the French presidential election scheduled for early 2027 to deny a role for a potential National Rally president in appointing her successor.
Similar action has already been taken by Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, who could also replace Lagarde.
Horse-trading between the major European partners is likely to be a central feature of the selection process. Germany, which has never held the presidency, could push for the office.
But both leading German candidates, Executive Board Member Schnabel and Bundesbank President Nagel have their drawbacks.
We don’t anticipate changing our forecasts on the choice of president. But different candidates could bring different attitudes to the use of non-standard crisis tools such as quantitative easing (QE), negative interest rates (NIRP), and the transmission protection instrument (TPI).
