The monthly macro outlook video: January 2026

Global tensions are rising fast. How will Venezuela’s upheaval and new US tariff threats reshape markets? Discover the key geopolitical shifts driving 2026 in our latest video.

Author

Lizzy Galbraith

Senior Political Economist

Image show title 'Macroeconomic outlook' on background of economic data

Duration: 5 Mins

Date: 21 Jan 2026

The new year was never expected to be calm — but few anticipated just how quickly the geopolitical landscape would shift.

From a dramatic power shake up in Venezuela to rising tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland, the opening weeks of 2026 have delivered a series of developments that could shape the global economy for years to come.

Lizzy Galbraith explains:

Why Venezuela is suddenly back in focus, and how the US-led intervention could influence the world’s largest oil reserves.
What the new US foreign policy direction may mean, from elections across Latin America to strategic control of critical infrastructure.
How Greenland became a geopolitical pressure point, sparking new tariff threats from Washington.
What rising global tensions could mean for markets, including energy prices, trade flows and defence spending.

Watch the video for more details.

Global Macro Research35 min Read

What will the 'Donroe Doctrine' mean for global macro and markets?

The new ‘Donroe Doctrine’ signals a more assertive US approach to its own hemisphere. How could it reshape geopolitics from Greenland to the Middle East?

16 Jan 2026

Global Macro Research1 min Read

What is the future of European supply chains?

Secular trends including the rise of AI, the green transition, and geopolitical fragmentation are exacerbating vulnerabilities in the EU’s industrial supply chains. But the bloc’s strategy is changing, and involves de-risking at key nodes in critical supply chains and developing leverage in areas of strength.

12 Jan 2026

Global Macro Research1 min Read

Eight key questions for 2026

We consider key questions facing the global economy and markets in 2026, including the outlook for US growth and the labour market, monetary policy under the next Fed chair, whether there is an AI bubble that bursts, if China’s anti-involution campaign will raise inflation, and a big year for Latin American politics.

22 Dec 2025

Global Macro Research1 min Read

Is the digital euro a solution in search of a problem?

The ECB is developing a central bank digital currency in response to changing digital payment demands, in contrast to the US strategy of pursuing privately issued stablecoins. The ECB hopes this will protect its monetary sovereignty while avoiding some of the risks associated with stablecoins. But it could crowd out private sector innovation while being insufficient to meet the ECB’s goals.

17 Dec 2025