Global Macro Research

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - May 2025

How might new tariff developments impact the global economy? Paul Diggle provides his latest analysis to help you navigate the constantly shifting terrain.

Author

Paul Diggle

Chief Economist

Duration: 6 mins

Date: 15 May 2025

Tariffs are still on everyone’s minds – the evolving landscape of international trade levies continues to keep analysts on their toes. Paul discusses forecasts, fiscal policies and Federal Reserve strategies this month.

Key highlights:

US tariffs and economic outlook. How may recent trade deals shape the global economy and what could they mean for future growth.
Economic indicators. We’ve revised our forecasts for US growth and inflation. Monitoring ever-changing economic data will be crucial.
US policy and fiscal outlook. Learn about potential shifts in US policy – including tax cuts – and their potential effects on the US’ fiscal deficit.
Federal Reserve and monetary policy. Understand the Fed's challenges with weaker growth and higher inflation, and how this changes the potential for rate cuts.
US economic and market exceptionalism. Explore the factors behind US exceptionalism, how this may change, and why we expect the dollar's dominance to continue despite challenges.

Watch the video for more details.

Global Macro Research35 min Read

How could stablecoins reshape the global financial system?

Stablecoins may be reshaping the digital payments landscape and could soon influence everything from US debt markets to monetary policy. Paul and Luke investigate.

22 Aug 2025

Global Macro Research1 min Read

Japan continuity despite an election setback

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house, weakening PM Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership. The outcome threatens the domestic policy agenda, complicates the trade talks with the US, and could trigger near-term bouts of market turmoil. But the longer-term outlook for Japanese assets looks stable.

21 Jul 2025

Global Macro Research1 min Read

Is China selling its US Treasuries?

After accounting for the use of custodians and acknowledging the role of state-owned enterprises, there seems to be limited evidence of China actively reducing its exposure to US assets. That said, holdings as a share of foreign assets may have been falling, while opportune sales could occur in an attempt to recruit ‘bond vigilantes’ and moderate US trade policy.

09 Jul 2025

Global Macro Research19 min Read

How much infrastructure does the world need?

In this new episode, we explore the staggering global infrastructure investment needs over the next 25 years, why the bill is so high, and how governments and private investors might share the load.

26 Jun 2025

Global Macro Research3 min Read

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video June 2025

What’s driving the latest surge in US deficit projections? Lizzy Galbraith highlights the fiscal and trade policy shifts that could reshape the global economic outlook.

13 Jun 2025

View all articles