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The monthly macro outlook video - June 2024

In our Monthly Macro video for June, watch Paul Diggle, Chief Economist, talk about the glimmers of hope for interest rates, recovery in Europe, and big elections in the US and UK.

Duration: 4 Mins

Key Highlights

  • Inflation pressures that re-emerged earlier this year should start to moderate again. Despite bumps in the road ahead, the US Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates in September and December.
  • The European Central Bank will cut rates twice more this year, while the Bank of England is likely to start cutting in August. Interest-rate cuts in emerging markets have been delayed, but not postponed.
  • Strong US growth is finally moderating, and the economy seems to be heading for a desired ‘soft landing’. Eurozone and UK growth is recovering. 
  • China’s property sector continues to be a problem, but gradual policy easing should start to support economic activity.  
  • Big elections will be sources of uncertainty. Investors need to digest Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s weaker-than-expected performance in India. Ex-president, Donald Trump, is leading the opinion polls in the US. Meanwhile, the UK may have a new government next month. 

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