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Key highlights

  • Trump wins US presidential election, Republicans control Congress.
  • Congress to focus on extending Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, deliver new tax cuts.
  • Proposed tax cuts could cost some US$10 trillion. Ambition to be constrained by deficit.
  • Trump administration to prioritise restrictions on immigration, trade.
  • Expect higher nominal GDP growth, inflation.
  • Fed may cut rates more slowly.

Latest insights

Global Macro Research27 min Listen

Is the Fed about to be 'Trumpified'?

We explore how political pressure on the Federal Reserve, rising inflation and slowing growth are reshaping the US economic outlook – and what it could mean for interest rates.

Is the Fed about to be 'Trumpified'?
Global Macro Research4 min Watch

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - August 2025

Trade deals, tariff floors and fiscal flashpoints – Lizzy Galbraith breaks down the latest developments shaping the economic outlook.

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - August 2025
Global Macro Research1 min Read

How do politicised tariffs add to Brazil's policy challenges?

The US’ threat of a 50% tariff on Brazil poses limited macroeconomic risks given the country’s low dependence on US trade, but a prolonged standoff between the two governments could stymie investor sentiment. High interest rates should support the real, as the Banco Central do Brasil will keep policy tight amid inflationary and fiscal risks that could renew market pressure.

How do politicised tariffs add to Brazil's policy challenges?
Global Macro Research1 min Read

Is China selling its US Treasuries?

After accounting for the use of custodians and acknowledging the role of state-owned enterprises, there seems to be limited evidence of China actively reducing its exposure to US assets. That said, holdings as a share of foreign assets may have been falling, while opportune sales could occur in an attempt to recruit ‘bond vigilantes’ and moderate US trade policy.

Is China selling its US Treasuries?
Global Macro Research19 min Listen

How much infrastructure does the world need?

In this new episode, we explore the staggering global infrastructure investment needs over the next 25 years, why the bill is so high, and how governments and private investors might share the load.

How much infrastructure does the world need?
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