Who is winning the US-China AI race?

Global Macro Research

Macro Bytes

Who is winning the US-China AI race?

Artificial intelligence is fast becoming a new front in global competition. Is this the defining US-China rivalry of the 21st century and what really matters in determining who comes out on top?

Authors

Luke Bartholomew

Deputy Chief Economist

Robert Gilhooly

Senior Emerging Markets Economist

Duration: 21 Mins

Date: Apr 22, 2026

The release of China’s DeepSeek R1 model last year seemed to kick off a new realm of competition between the US and China.

In this episode, Luke is joined by Senior Emerging Markets Economist Robert Gilhooly to discuss the nature of the AI race between the US and China.

Luke and Bob cover who they believe is winning now, whether government strategies around export controls and energy policy can determine who the winner might ultimately be, and whether framing the contest as a race with a single winner is the right way to think about how the technology and policy is likely to evolve.

Transcript

Who's winning the AI race?

Are frontier models a distraction? We explore why the real AI advantage may come down to ecosystems and energy.

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