ข้ามไปยังเนื้อหาหลัก
LoginOpens in new window
Opens in new window
  1. หน้าแรก
  2. มุมมองเชิงลึกและผลการวิจัย
Global Macro Research
ราคาสินทรัพย์

Finding conviction in a world of higher geopolitical risk

Predicting the outcome of any particular geopolitical event is difficult, but we can have conviction in some of the broader investment implications of persistently elevated geopolitical risk. Negative supply shocks will be more frequent, which will result in higher inflation volatility and more frequent bouts of positive bond-equity correlation. New sources of diversification will be needed, including infrastructure and commodities.

ระยะเวลา: 1 นาที

Key Takeaways

  • The ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict is fragile and it is difficult to have strong conviction about what will happen next.  
  • But the conflict does underscore certain structural trends about which we can have more conviction: geopolitical risk is likely to be persistently high; and chokepoints will be increasingly weaponised to gain leverage in geopolitical disputes.  
  • This has several important implications for the economy and markets, which will drive secular investment themes over the longer run.  
  • Negative supply shocks — which push inflation up and growth down — are likely to be more common. This in turn means higher and more volatile inflation, and so greater demand among investors for products that provide inflation protection.   
  • Bonds are likely to play a smaller role in diversifying risks as the bond-equity correlation is more frequently positive, and investors demand a higher term premium at the longer end of bond curves.   
  • Assets with exposure to infrastructure, critical minerals, other commodities, and higher defence spending are all likely to benefit in this world.  

    Read the full article. 

Related articles

Global Macro Research1 min อ่าน

The widening supply-chain shock of the Iran war

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is exposing the fragility of global supply chains and the reliance on key chokepoints well beyond crude oil and natural gas. We survey the impacts on fertilisers, jet fuel, and helium.

Global Macro Research6 min อ่าน

The monthly macro outlook video: April 2026

Markets rallied after the US–Iran ceasefire, but risks still lurk. Paul Diggle explains what falling oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitics mean for inflation and the global outlook.

Global Macro Research23 min อ่าน

How are investors responding to the Iran conflict? with Victoria Scholar from interactive investor

A longer-than-expected Middle East conflict has sent oil prices soaring — but the real story is how this shock is rippling through markets, overturning long held assumptions about risk, diversification and safe havens.

Global Macro Research1 min อ่าน

EM outlook: shifting sands

Conflict in the Middle East clouds the near-term EM outlook, while US tariff policy and a busy electoral calendar also introduce large uncertainties. But EMs should benefit from the striking down of IEEPA, while the breakneck artificial intelligence rollout suggests external demand should remain robust.

Global Macro Research1 min อ่าน

Who's winning the AI race?

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to rewire economic growth and reshape geopolitics. For these reasons, it has been compared to the nuclear, space and arms races, which defined the 20th century. And, while the US may be in the lead at the moment, this is a marathon not a sprint.

View all articles