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Global Macro Research
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The widening supply-chain shock of the Iran war

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is exposing the fragility of global supply chains and the reliance on key chokepoints well beyond crude oil and natural gas. We survey the impacts on fertilisers, jet fuel, and helium.

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Key Takeaways

  • Beyond oil and gas, the war in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz are having significant impacts on the supply of commodities including fertiliser, jet fuel, and helium.  
  • Along with energy, this will compound the negative global growth shock and lead to higher inflation and increasing questions over supply-chain security and resilience.   
  • Emerging markets will find themselves in more difficult positions due to the high weighting of food in their inflation baskets. Indeed, previous instances of food price inflation have led to political instability in some countries.   
  • Airline stocks have been a significant underperformer as jet fuel prices have risen and supplies start to run low. Tourism-heavy economies will face a more pronounced hit to growth prospects.  
  • The loss of Qatari helium threatens the semiconductor industry and economies that have derived significant growth from it. But the top fabricators may have an advantage through diversified supply and recycling capabilities.   

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