Thematic: From disruption to resilience, the new supply-chain investment story

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have again exposed the global economy’s dependence on a small number of critical routes, suppliers and inputs. The shock has not stopped at energy. It is also affecting fertiliser, food, jet fuel and helium, with consequences for industries from agriculture and aviation to semiconductors and healthcare.

Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, higher tariffs and the latest Middle East disruption all point in the same direction: resilience is becoming a structural investment theme.

The latest shock goes beyond oil

The Strait of Hormuz is best known as an energy chokepoint. But our analysis, based on a closure or severe disruption of the Strait, shows how far those vulnerabilities extend.

Fertiliser is one example. Roughly one-third of global seaborne fertiliser feedstocks used to pass through the Strait, including almost half of global urea and sulphur supplies, and around 30% of global ammonia exports. Since early March, that supply has effectively stalled.

The pressure starts at the beginning of the food chain. Higher fertiliser costs can feed into crop prices, food production and consumer inflation.

Fertiliser production outside the Gulf can also depend on regional liquefied natural gas (LNG). Supplies to Indian fertiliser plants are said to be down by around 70%, while five of Bangladesh’s six state-owned fertiliser plants have ceased production.

Transport and technology are also exposed

Food is not the only pressure point. Gulf refineries play an important role in global jet fuel supply.

In 2025, Europe imported 53% of its jet fuel from the Gulf, with another 16% coming from Indian refineries using Gulf crude. Higher prices and tighter availability can affect airlines directly, given fuel typically accounts for 20-40% of operating costs.

The knock-on effects go beyond aviation. Air freight accounts for only a small share of global trade by volume, but a much larger share by value. Disruption can therefore affect high-value supply chains, including electronics, pharmaceuticals and other time-sensitive goods.

Helium is another less obvious vulnerability. Around one-third of global supply passes through the Strait, with Qatar a key producer. Helium is difficult to substitute and is critical to semiconductors, healthcare and aerospace. Even large semiconductor fabrication plants typically hold only 30-90 days of supply.

However, leading chipmakers such as Samsung and TSMC recover 80-90% of their helium usage, giving them more resilience than smaller producers. Supply-chain shocks do not affect all companies in the same way.

These examples point to the same lesson: resilience is no longer just about holding more inventory. It is about deciding which inputs, suppliers and routes matter most.

Resilience does not mean retreat

It is tempting to conclude from recent shocks that globalisation is reversing, and resilience means bringing production back home. The reality is more nuanced.

Our US Supply Chain Conditions Index suggests pressure on US supply chains remains well below the extremes seen after the pandemic, even though stress levels have increased.

The index rose to an estimated 0.51 in May, its highest level since September 2022, but still below the peaks of 2021 and early 2022. The US has been helped by healthier inventories, less acute labour shortages and more flexible sourcing.

Tariffs have pushed supply chains to adjust, not collapse.

China’s share of US goods imports fell by 4.7 percentage points across the value chain, while demand increased for capital goods from other Asian economies, particularly Vietnam and Taiwan. Mexico has emerged as a hub for AI-related products bound for the US, although some of this reflects Asian inputs and transshipments.

Supply chains are not breaking beyond repair but are being rewired.

In labour-intensive industries such as apparel, resilience is unlikely to mean shifting all production back to the US or Europe. More often, it may mean diversifying across lower-cost manufacturing hubs while preserving speed, flexibility and reliability.

What this means for investors

Companies and governments are rethinking where goods are made, how energy is sourced, how materials are transported and how critical inputs are secured.

This could support long-term capital spending in advanced manufacturing, automation, logistics technology, energy security, transport infrastructure and critical materials.

Take energy. Middle East disruption may strengthen the case for more diversified supply, including greater long-haul LNG transportation into Asia. At the same time, it reinforces broader efforts to improve energy security through renewables and nuclear power, both of which continue to attract significant investment. 

From a thematic investment perspective, this could support companies linked to LNG infrastructure, grid development and specialist technologies supporting the energy transition.

Manufacturing faces a similar shift. Apparel suppliers with diversified production footprints may face near-term disruption from tariffs, freight costs and input-price volatility. But those footprints can make them more valuable partners for global brands seeking flexibility and resilience.

Emerging markets may also play a bigger role. Some countries may face near-term pressure from higher food, energy and transport costs. Others may benefit as companies diversify production, increase regional sourcing and build more resilient networks.

Final thoughts

For thematic investors, the key is to look beyond temporary price moves and focus on the structural shift. Commodity prices may spike or fade, but companies are redesigning global production networks for higher geopolitical risk, greater protectionism and rising demand for security of supply.

Opportunities lie in those companies that are helping to make supply chains more flexible, secure and resilient.