Skip to main content
LoginOpens in new window
  1. Home
  2. Insights and Research
Global Macro Research
Macro Bytes

What does Andy Burnham's rise mean for the UK economy?

A new prime minister, a new governing philosophy and some big economic questions. What is ‘Manchesterism’ and can it deliver the growth the UK needs?

Image shows two concerned looking figures looking down onto iconic images of the UK and union jack

Duration: 29 Mins

Andy Burnham is set to become Britain’s new prime minister on 20 July, and he promises a new style of governance – ‘Manchesterism’. 

Luke and Lizzy discuss what Manchesterism means in practice, whether devolution is a credible growth strategy and how a Burnham government might navigate financial markets. They also examine how tight fiscal constraints could limit both his policy agenda and political prospects.

Some highlights:

  • Manchesterism is about shifting power away from London, giving regions more control over economic policy and delivery.
  • The goal is not just more growth, but ‘better’ growth, focused on communities, infrastructure and living standards.
  • Sceptics argue the diagnosis may be wrong, with deeper structural issues, such as housing and productivity, still unresolved.
  • Fiscal constraints are tight, limiting how quickly or how far the new government can go.
  • Delivery will be key, with only a few years before the next election to prove the model works.

 Watch the video below for the full discussion or listen on Spotify: 

 

Related Stories
Are recessions really predictable? Rethinking economic 'common sense'
Where do interest rates go if growth weakens but inflation increases?
The new economics of space
What a change of prime minister could mean for the UK economy
Who is winning the US-China 'AI race'?

Related articles

Global Macro Research40 min Read

Are recessions really predictable? Rethinking economic 'common sense'

Are downturns driven by cycles or shocks? A fresh take on forecasting recessions.

Global Macro Research4 min Read

The Monthly Macro Outlook Video - June 2026

Growth looks steady. But are markets underestimating the risks from oil and AI?

Global Macro Research1 min Read

Global Economic Scenarios Q3 2026

Our baseline “TACOil” scenario incorporates de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict and a continued tailwind from AI capex. Global growth is close to trend, there is a temporary inflation increase, but the Fed is on hold this year and cuts next year. Our scenario distribution includes “closure risk dominates” and a residual risk of “stagflation”, as the energy shock could return. AI is the other key risk dimension, with possible downsides both from “AI and capex collapse” and “AI eats all the jobs”, but an important upside in “productivity rebound”. We also consider the downside risks of “bond market rout” and a US-China “technological decoupling” and the upside of “fiscal expansion”.

Global Macro Research31 min Read

Where do interest rates go if growth weakens but inflation increases?

Rising interest rates are back, but why? What does this mean for inflation, growth and equities?

Global Macro Research1 min Read

The state of US supply chains: from tariffs to war

US supply chains have gone from weathering sharp shifts in tariffs to facing strain from the Iran war. Our US Supply Chain Conditions Index allows us to assess these impacts on prices, freight, labour and more as they unfold using high-frequency indicators. One finding is that US supply chains are seeing considerably less strain than during the post-pandemic inflation surge.

View all articles
Risk warning

The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and an investor may get back less than the amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future results.