Global Macro Research
Macro BytesWho is winning the US-China 'AI race'?
Artificial intelligence is fast becoming a new front in global competition. Is this the defining US-China rivalry of the 21st century and what really matters in determining who comes out on top?
Authors
Luke Bartholomew
Deputy Chief Economist
Robert Gilhooly
Senior Emerging Markets Economist
Duration: 20 Mins
Date: 22 Apr 2026
The release of China’s DeepSeek R1 model last year, which rivalled many US large language models but was trained at a fraction of the cost, seemed to kick off a new realm of competition between the US and China.
In this episode, Luke is joined by Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist, to discuss the nature of the ‘AI race’ between the US and China.
They cover who is winning now, whether government strategies around export controls and energy policy can determine who the winner might ultimately be, and whether framing the contest as a ‘race’ with a single ‘winner’ is the right way to think about how the technology and policy is likely to evolve.
Some highlights:
- AI leadership isn’t just about better models, but about power, infrastructure and adoption at scale.
- US export controls shape the race, but they haven’t stopped rapid progress by Chinese firms.
- Electricity is emerging as a critical constraint and a potential competitive advantage for China.
- Different strategies may define success, with the US chasing breakthroughs and China prioritising real world deployment.
Listen to the full discussion on the latest episode of Macro Bytes.
